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Walt, as usual, is spot on right.
Where the sun rises on you is the crucial aspect of this race.
There is little success for those who see the sunrise in Waverly on day 2. At minimum, you should be to Hills Island. Even better is Miami. Nobody has finished who saw the sunrise in Waverly since the 88 hour format.
Morning of Day 3 should find you at least at Franklin Island. Katfish Katy's is even better.
Morning of Day 4 you'd really better be at Hermann. Washington is better.
And when we say sunrise, we mean you are in your boat and moving as soon as the sky is gray and the fog, if any, is gone.
100 miles a day is a good, easy to remember goal.
Day 1: Kaw Point to Hills Island. About 88 miles.
Day 2. Hills Island to Katfish Katy's. About 99 miles.
Day 3. Katfish Katy's to Hermann. About 82 miles.
Day 4. Hermann to St. Charles. About 70 miles.
These are minimums, as Walt says. This would have someone nervously calculating speed on day 4 to make the cutoff. A better scenario is this:
Day 1: Kaw Point to Miami. About 105 miles Day 2: Miami to Jeff City. About 118 miles Day 3: Jeff City to Washington. About 76 miles. Day 4: Washington to St. Charles. About 40 miles.
In this setup, days 1 and 2 are roughly equal, considering you get a late start Tuesday morning out of Kaw Point. Then you've earned a more relaxed day 3 and 4, but will likely be feeling competitive and looking to finish with the crew you've been pacing with.
I think most veterans would tell you to push as hard as you can on Day 1 before you catch a couple of hours sleep. Your Day 1 really sets the stage for the kind of finish you'll have. Then, if a problem waylays you like a storm, fog, equipment, etc.... you're ahead of things and a couple of hours delay is not a deal breaker.
We call this "banking some time." and it's a very good strategy.
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