Latest Corps press release says Missouri should be back in her banks by late September or early October.  I think this must be based on average rainfall because I don't know how else they'd figure it.  Montana snowpack is gone.  Western reaches are returning to normal.  But there are adhoc lakes now all the way up to Gavin's Point.  Lakes that used to be cornfields and Interstate 29.  So lots of draining to do.  Cutting back on releases.  Should be 10,000 less cfs going by KC soon.  That's like taking 3 Kansas rivers off the table.

Speaking of the Kansas River, they'll hopefully open her spouts soon.  We don't want the snakes to get thirsty.

Good point.  Yes, that would work.  The days could be balmy and 75 but the nights 50 and damp.

Here's a Big Muddy News blog post with the latest information on the Corps dam release plans (including the press release Vicki posted above)- http://bigmuddynews.blogspot.com/2011/07/corps-releases-flood-drawdown-schedule....

Basically, releases from Gavin's Point dam will drop from 160,000 cfs to 150,000cfs by Monday, August 1. They will remain at that level until mid August. Then they will step down 5,000 cfs per day with a target of 90,000 by the end of August. It takes a week-ish for changes at Gavin's Point to reach KC, but with all the flooded land adjacent to the river draining, it's hard to say what the actual response will be.

It will hold at 90,000 for a couple weeks, then get down to 40,000 by Oct. 1.

They've figured above average rainfall into this, but if there is a bunch of rain, especially above the dams, this schedule may change. If there's a bunch of rain below the dams, there will be higher levels below KC regardless.

The important thing to realize is that in the Missouri River below KC, the river level generally has less to do with what comes out of the dams than how much rain we get in the Grand River, Kansas River, Nishnabotna, etc.

How do we sign up?

September is a gamble.  The predicted flows are borderline.  Plus, the ramps and infrastructure will likely still be in the repair/restore stages.  Big drop in flows scheduled for October 1st.  Takes a week for us to feel it in KC.  So by Oct. 8th we'd have good water. 

Due to squishy and weakened levees during the draw down, they may keep the river closure in effect for several weeks.  The river is currently closed from the Dakotas all the way to Glasgow to protect weak levees.  Part of the reason they draw down slow is to let the levees firm back up.  Right now they are like jello.  The high water is to some extent, supporting them.  I think that's part of why they have the water hang at 90,000 for so long on their schedule. 

We also need to remember that the Kaw is dry because the lakes are bulging up here.  Once the Missouri starts receding they will open up lakes on the Kaw and the Grand.  Basically a water swap we'll watch happen for a few weeks.

September would be us watching nervously every thunderstorm in the valley waiting for flood stage to creep back.  October, with 40,000 out of Gavins Point, is more of a sure bet. 

I'm going to read a lot into the new countdown clock ...